Beyond conventional metrics: the elusive impact of the Pilares program on crime in Mexico City

Objectives

The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of the Pilares community program on crime rates and crime harm in Mexico City during the period from 2019 to 2023.

Methods

Employing a staggered difference-in-differences methodology, we examined the effects of the Pilares program on three crime metrics—Crime Rate (CR), Crime Harm per Resident (CHIP), and Crime Harm per Victim (CHIV)—within 10-block and 20-block areas surrounding the Pilares centers.

Results

The analysis did not detect statistically significant changes in the CR, CHIP, or CHIV that could be attributed to the Pilares program. Unexpectedly, a slight increase in the CR was observed in 2023 within the 20-block areas surrounding the program sites.

Conclusions

The results of our analysis suggest that the Pilares program did not impact crime rates or related harm within the evaluated timeframe. This finding underscores the complexities involved in assessing community-based interventions in high-crime vulnerable areas.