Unraveling residential burglary trends in urban Mexico: The role of target accessibility, time and regional contexts

This study aims to examine how contextual factors influence the risk of burglary victimization, specifically investigating whether time and regional effects shape these relationships. By analyzing data from the Mexican system of cities between January 2018 and June 2022 while controlling for population characteristics, we detected significant decreases in burglary risk among urban dwellers living in apartments and using restricted access mechanisms, although these effects are limited to certain regions. On the other hand, occupants of detached houses and those without restricted access mechanisms did not experience a reduction in burglary risk. These findings validate existing criminological theories emphasizing the importance of contextual factors. Moreover, our study underscores the necessity of further exploring why the downward decrease in burglary rates across cities came to a halt after the COVID-19 pandemic.